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US Energy Forecast Model |
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Developed by Bruce Parker |
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Version 1.1 |
December 11, 2020 |
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The "Energy Forecast Model" has been designed forecast U.S. energy
requirements and greenhouse emissions for the period 2020-2050 |
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The "Reference Case" is based on the "Reference Case" scenario of U.S.
Energy Information Agency's "Annual Energy Outlook 2020" (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/) |
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The forecast is simply based on linear (and percentage) changes to the
"reference case" "end uses" and is not based on any economic model |
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The primary purpose of the model is to examine greenhouse gas emission
reduction scenarios that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 80-85%
of 2005 (or 2020) emissions in order to determine the "policy options"
that are needed to meet the goal of U.S. carbon neutrality by 2050 |
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(Note that "policy options" are expressed in terms of a percent change
to 2019 energy requirements (or CO2e emissions) per year.) |
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The model calculates the impact of those policies on energy use and
greenhouse gas emissions from 2020 to 2050 |
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The model also calculates the negative emissions needed to become carbon
neutral in 2050 and the amount of renewable energy needed by year
through 2050 |
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Since the EIA data only has energy-related data for 2019-2020 and since
data about non-energy end-use emissions could not be found for 2019, the
model also estimates |
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(1) sector emission for 2019 based on the 2.1% decrease in emissions
from 2018 |
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(2) emissions from energy end uses based on the appropriate "Carbon
Dioxide Emissions Coefficients by Fuel" |
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(3) Greenhouse gas emissions from non-energy end uses (various sources
used) |
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(4) both 2020 and 2050 "Quad" and GHG emissions values of not otherwise
"discovered" |
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(5)"Other Emissions" for each sector so the the total greenhouse
emissions for the sector will equal to the expected amount |
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The model works by adjusting the 2019 value for each "end use" based on
the following factors (1 & 2 are calculated from the EIA data and other,
3, 4 & 5 are from user parameters) |
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(1) The "Unit" "BAU Growth Rate 2020-2050" (where a unit can be
"Quads", "MTCO2e", "billion vehicle miles", etc.) |
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(2) The "MTCO2e" "BAU Growth Rate 2020-2050" |
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(3) A "% Yearly Efficiency Improvement" factor (in addition to #1 and #2
above) |
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(4) A "Quad Conversion Factor" to allow the "decarbonized" energy
requirement to be different from the 2019 value (e.g., a heat pumps
might need less energy than a natural gas furnace + central air
conditioning; also, industrial energy will likely increase if hydrogen
is used instead of natural gas; electric vehicles use less energy than
gas-powered vehicles) |
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(5)" Percent Decarbonized (or Reduction) By Year" (specified by starting
year and 5-year change) |
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Reasonable ranges of values for the parameters for #3 and #4 are
discussed on the worksheet "UserParms" |
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The user can also enter variables to calculate carbon dioxide removal
requirements to reach net zero emissions in 2050 (Gross emissions
unchanged after 2050) |
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(1) The US budget for net zero emissions |
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(2) The starting year for carbon dioxide removal |
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(3) The year that negative emissions will "plateau" (and remain
unchanged until 2100) |
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(4) Direct Air Capture (DAC) % of CDR (will cause more renewable energy
to be consumed) |
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(5) GigaJoules to capture a tonCO2 (8 is a good estimate - see
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-10842-5/tables/2) |
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The calculations for each "end use" (other than electricity generation)
are done independently; electricity generation requirements are computed
from combined demamd |
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The model data is updated whenever a "user parameter" is changed. |
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