Large-scale closure of coal mines is required for China to achieve carbon neutrality. However, what this means for methane emissions, particularly for abandoned mine methane (AMM), is highly uncertain. Here we construct a detailed and dynamic coal mine database to estimate China’s coal methane emissions during 2011–2019 and evaluate future emission trajectories based on different mine closure policies. We find that AMM emissions have been largely underestimated, which leads to an increased proportion of AMM in China’s total coal methane emissions, and are expected to become the dominant source by 2035. We develop a coal mine closure strategy prioritizing high-gas-content mines. Compared with the current closure strategy based on mine scale, this strategy could reduce cumulative methane emissions by 67?Tg (26%) to 2050, potentially reaching 100?Tg (39%) with improved methane recovery and utilization practices. This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution Access options Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription $29.99 / 30 days cancel any time Receive 12 print issues and online access $209.00 per year only $17.42 per issue Buy this article Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout Data availability Source data are provided with this paper, which can be accessed in Zenodo62 and GitHub (https://github.com/Marquezliu-lq/China_Coal_Mine_Methane). Raw data of China’s coal mines are publicly available at State Administration of Coal Mine Safety48, China’s National Energy Administration49, Global Energy Monitor50 and China Coal Trade Data51. Other data are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. Code availability The scripts for calculating coal methane emissions in China and simulating future mine closure policies are available at... |