(a) Yearly WNND cases and fitted model (line) in nine representative states, and projections of the number of future cases under mean (M) or extreme (E—95th percentile) climate conditions for either current (cross-hatch) or future (star) climate projections. Error bars include both the standard error of the mean projected values and the standard deviation of the residuals between current projected and actual values. (b) Colours/shading indicate the significant variables in the fitted models by state with pie-charts showing their relative importance. (c) Human WNND cases and abundance of infected mosquitoes in Colorado when all humans were naive (2003, filled points, coeff = 0.99, F1,175 = 173.1, p < 0.001) and in subsequent years (2004–2008, open points, coeff = 0.72, F1,787 = 285.5, p < 0.001). Variables were power transformed (1/4) to equalize leverage and linearize the relationship. (Online version in colour.) |